Speaker
Description
The impacts of climate change on viticulture are a matter of increasing concern, particularly in Europe, where vine-growing is intrinsic to both the economy and cultural heritage. To facilitate a more profound understanding of climate change, the climate analogue method is employed to analyse the case of European vineyards. The methodology consists in matching future vineyard climates with the current one of other regions, providing insights into how shifting climates may influence the suitability of current and potential vineyard regions. The use of the climate analogue method facilitates the identification of regions within Europe that will retain their suitability for viticulture under future climate conditions, whilst concomitantly enabling the discovery of new areas with wine-growing potential in the future.
We introduce a problem-specific approach to climate analogues, considering microclimatic variation and sector-specific climate metrics. Instead of the raw outputs of the climate models, we rely on several bioclimatic indices, that consider climate conditions in the context of vineyard growth and disease development. In order to reduce the variable redundancy, a Principal Component Analysis is applied to these six indices. Furthermore, vineyards are frequently situated in hilly regions with south-facing slopes to maximise sunlight exposure. These topographic characteristics modify temperature, thereby influencing vine growth and disease dynamics. Therefore, we calculate sub-grid local temperature corrections based on slope orientation and altitude.
The findings of this study offer a clearer picture of how European viticulture will need to adapt to climate change, with a particular focus on spatial shifts in suitable regions. This will assist winegrowers in making informed decisions regarding vineyard locations, cultural management strategies, and future investments in viticulture. Our results also demonstrate the importance of using problem-specific indices, handling variable interdependence, and accounting for fine-scale climatic variability in climate analogue analyses. Though developed for viticulture, the methodology and insights are broadly applicable to other climate-sensitive systems, from agriculture to urban planning.
